Popularity Contest: Can Facebook and Twitter Predict Election Results? - ABC News

Popularity helps in politics, especially having "friends," "followers" and people who "like" you.

In November's elections, the candidate who more people "liked" on Facebook won in 71 percent of Senate elections. Twitter was even more accurate, with the candidates with more followers winning in 74 percent of elections.

Facebook says it watched 118 races in the Senate and the House, and found 77 winners had more "likes" than their opponents did. Furthermore, candidates with twice as many fans as their opponent won by at least 3.9 percent.

Social media, such as Facebook and Twitter, were often better predictors of election results than how much money a candidate raised and spent, according to Facebook. In 42 of the races Facebook analyzed, the winner had more "likes" but less money.

The two Senate candidates who spent the most of their own money, Republican Linda McMahon of Connecticut and Democrat Jeff Greene of Florida, did not win. Greene did not win the Democratic primary. McMahon spent almost $42 million and Green spent close to $24 million on the primary, according to the FEC.

But as of November 1, McMahon had only 15 more "likes" on Facebook than the winner, Richard Blumenthal, even though she spent more than seven times as much.

In Florida, Jeff Greene had only 644 "likes" on Facebook compared to the Democratic primary winner, Kendrick Meek, with 24,135 "likes." (Meek lost the general election to Republican Marco Rubio.)

Furthermore, according to the FEC, six out of the ten top-spending Senate candidates did not win election. "The consensus is that money makes a difference but it's hard to quantify," said Andrew Gellman, a professor of statistics and political science at Columbia University. "[Campaign finances] are important, but non-linear. The extra $10 million does not help as much as the first million."

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Angry voters flood streets as several candidates reject Haiti election - Christian Science Monitor

Port-au-Prince, Haiti

Frustrated voters flooded the streets and several presidential candidates called for the government to annul Sunday’s Haiti election due to problems at polls throughout the country.

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Scores of voters said they were prohibited from voting because their names did not appear on rolls at the polling places. Angry voters threw rocks and bottles at United Nations peacekeeping forces and shut down polling places.

Twelve of the 19 presidential candidates held an afternoon press conference calling for the vote to be canceled. They accused the Inite party, backed by President Rene Preval, of "massive fraud."

RELATED: In Haiti election, voter confusion, apathy loom large

As polls closed at 4 p.m. peaceful demonstrations clogged the streets of Petionville, a neighborhood in the hills above downtown Port-au-Prince.

“We are not going to stand for an election that is not the will of the people,” says Abner Jean, who could not vote despite holding a valid registration card. His name did not appear on rolls. “If they put in a candidate that we did not choose, we’ll use whatever means necessary to kick them out.”

Observers said problems were reported throughout the country. Many voters who’d been displaced by the earthquake did not know where to vote, resulting in frustration and confusion.

The electoral commission held a press conference urging calm and reassuring the public that the vote was on track.

Representatives for the commission, CEP, said voters tried to use out-of-date cards or were going to the wrong polling places. They urged voters to call a toll-free number or go to the commission’s Web site to find their polling place.

“There are places where bandits shut down polls, shots were fired, and stones were thrown,” said Opont Pierre, director general of the CEP. “But it is only a small percentage of the polling areas and it won’t stop us from voting and getting a valid result.”

By that time, however, Haitians had already taken to Port-au-Prince streets. They rushed to the candidates’ press conference.

Michel Martelly, a popular musician considered one of the leading candidates in a field of 19, said the meeting was held "to denounce today's massive fraud all over the country."

Rapper Wyclef Jean appeared moments later with Martelly, who is known as “Sweet Mickey.” The crowd that formed erupted as Jean hugged Martelly.

Song broke out with lyrics like “Oh Mickey, now we’ve been delivered,” and “They gave us cholera, they call it poison,” a reference to the cholera epidemic that has killed more than 1,600 and continues to spread.

Nearby, blue helmeted UN soldiers and Haitian police in riot gear lined street sides.

The crowd followed Martelly and Jean, who were joined by Charles Henry Baker, a white-haired businessman who also complained that the vote was unfair.

It was a raucous end to a voting day that began quietly with teenagers playing soccer on traffic-free streets, using earthquake rubble as goal markers as women and children filtered to church.

Tensions grew as the day unfolded and more people complained they’d been prohibited from voting.

Laurent Yvone, who lives in a camp for people displaced by January’s earthquake, lined up with thousands of early this morning. The polling place for the camp, known as Camp Corail, had just 39 registered names, however.

“There are more than 5,000 people here and the [Interim Electoral Commission] sent us less than 40 names. We don’t have enough ballots,” says the polling place’s supervisor, Elizer Fritznel.

Mr. Fritznel fled before the polls were supposed to close at 4 p.m. Only a handful of voters cast ballots there.

“If we can’t vote, these ballots are not going to leave here,” Mr. Yvone said. “This is corruption.”

RELATED: In Haiti election, voter confusion, apathy loom large

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Greek Socialists Win In Local Polls, Drop Election Threat - Wall Street Journal

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See a sample reprint in PDF format.Order a reprint of this article nowNOVEMBER 7, 2010, 8:11 P.M. ETUPDATE: Greek Socialists Win In Local Polls, Drop Election Threat ArticleCommentsmore in Business »

(Updates with further details, comment.)

ATHENS (Dow Jones)--Greece's ruling Socialists appear to have survived a key test of their popularity in local polls Sunday, prompting Prime Minister George Papandreou to drop his threat of early national elections if the vote went against him.

With more than 50% of the votes counted, Socialist candidates were on track to win in 7 of Greece's 13 electoral regions--including the all important province of Attica, home to 40% of the Greek population--against five for the opposition New Democracy party. In the region of Eastern Macedonia and Thrace, the race between the two main parties ...

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