As Democrats' message lags, GOP awaits huge wins - Washington Post

WASHINGTON -- Two weeks before Election Day, Democrats fear their grip on the House may be gone, and Republicans are poised to celebrate big gains in the Senate and governors' mansions as well.

Analysts in both parties say all major indicators tilt toward the Republicans. President Barack Obama's policies are widely unpopular. Congress, run by the Democrats, rates even lower. Fear and anger over unemployment and deep deficits are energizing conservative voters; liberals are demoralized.

Private groups are pouring huge sums of money into GOP campaigns. An almost dizzying series of Democratic messages has failed to gain traction, forcing Obama to zigzag in search of a winning formula.

With early voting under way in many states, Democrats are trying to minimize the damage by concentrating their resources on a dwindling number of races.

"The poll numbers and the enthusiasm on the right versus the lack of the enthusiasm on the left suggest a pretty big Republican night," said former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, who once headed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

With Democrats in power while the unemployment rate stands at 9.6 percent, "it's difficult to say, 'Well it could have been worse,'" Kerrey said.

Polls, campaign finance reports and advisers in both parties indicate that Republicans are in line to seize on a level of voter discontent that rivals 1994, when the GOP gained the House majority for the first time in 40 years. Democrats are embattled at every level.

HOUSE:

Republicans need to win 40 seats to regain the House majority they lost four years ago. Even some Democratic officials acknowledge that their losses could well exceed that.

A GOP takeover would depose Rep. Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., as the first female House speaker and force Obama to negotiate with Republicans on every significant legislative issue.

Every day brings fresh evidence of Democratic officials virtually abandoning House members whose re-election bids seem hopeless. Republicans are expanding the field to pursue races that once appeared unattainable. In the coming week, Republicans or GOP-leaning outside groups plan to spend money in a 82 House races that they see as competitive or within reach of a last-minute upset.

Democrats, desperate to hold their losses to three dozen seats, plan to run TV ads in 59 races in the remaining days. But their chief House campaign committee has recently canceled millions of dollars worth of advertising for struggling Reps. Steve Driehaus and Mary Jo Kilroy of Ohio, Suzanne Kosmas of Florida, Betsy Markey of Colorado and Steve Kagen of Wisconsin.

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For One Tea Party Candidate, Time to Temper the Message - New York Times

“I smile when I think of what we can do together in the Senate if the people send me,” Mr. Paul wrote.

Mr. DeMint related the note to the crowd of 300 people at the evening rally, in Erlanger. He said he himself smiled at the thought of “not just us two but eight or 10 senators” being elected and going up against the Republican establishment to push the Tea Party goal of limited government.

But Mr. DeMint’s smile may have vanished by morning. During a nationally televised debate on Fox News Sunday, Mr. Paul said that if he were elected to the Senate, he would support Senator Mitch McConnell, also from Kentucky, to keep his job as Republican leader.

Pressed to say whether he would choose him over Mr. DeMint, Mr. Paul said that he would vote for whomever Republicans chose as their leader and that he assumed it would be Mr. McConnell.

It was one more sign that no matter how devoted Mr. Paul is to Tea Party principles, he may be forced to yield periodically to some realities of the old-school politics that he denounces.

This also occurred last month, when Mr. McConnell set up a fund-raiser in Washington for Mr. Paul with several Republican senators who, like Mr. McConnell, had supported the $700 billion bank bailout in 2008; during the primary, Mr. Paul said he would not accept donations from anyone who had done so.

With the election just a month away, Mr. Paul’s wide lead in the polls over Jack Conway, his Democratic opponent, has narrowed, but he still appears ahead. And Mr. Paul may be acting a bit more cautiously these days to hold on to his lead, which is par for the course for many candidates after they emerge from a party primary and face the broader electorate.

“His approach has changed,” said Trey Grayson, the secretary of state, who lost in the primary to Mr. Paul. “He’s acting more like an incumbent. His tone is designed more for a general election audience and swing voters.”

But, Mr. Grayson quickly added, Mr. Paul still gets across his points. “He still, at the end of the day, talks about shrinking the size of the government,” Mr. Grayson said. “Those things haven’t changed, and that’s why he’s ahead in the polls.”

During the spring primary, Mr. Paul invariably opened his speeches by declaring that “a Tea Party tidal wave is coming.” His “randslide” win of the Republican nomination was the movement’s first major success on the national stage.

Now, his references to the Tea Party are fewer and farther between. On a trip last week through eastern Kentucky, the trademark yellow “Don’t Tread on Me” flags of the movement were gone. Mr. Paul did not sound his earlier battle cry that he would shut down Congress for a week if it failed to amend the Constitution to require a balanced budget. In fact, he did not mention the Tea Party at all.

Almost inconspicuous in a dark blue button-down shirt and cotton pants, Mr. Rand began his short speech in London by reciting in a soft voice the names of the other small towns he had just visited.

“I haven’t met one person on the entire trip who is in favor of President Obama or any of his policies,” he said. Even Democrats, he added, “realize that this is the most anti-Kentucky, anti-coal president we’ve ever had.”

He put in a slight dig at his opponent, Mr. Conway, whom he did not name and whom he rarely mentions, saying that the Democrat had once supported the cap-and-trade legislation, which is much loathed in this coal-producing state. “He was for it before he was agin’ it,” Mr. Paul, who is an ophthalmologist, said.

At Saturday’s rally, Mr. Paul did acknowledge the Tea Party — his campaign had bused in several dozen members of a contingent from northern Kentucky, who were having a convention nearby. Mr. Paul shared the stage with his father, Representative Ron Paul, the Texas Republican and 2008 presidential candidate, and with Mr. DeMint, and they were more overtly whipping up Tea Party sentiment.

The Conway strategy has been to cast Mr. Paul as out of the mainstream (in one advertisement, some seniors say he is “off the wall” and question “what planet” he is from). They also portray him as being unfamiliar with the state. Indeed, Mr. Paul focuses chiefly on national issues, like the debt and spending.

But Danny Briscoe, a Democratic consultant here who is not part of the Conway campaign, said this approach had not worked so far. Mr. Paul has “managed to appear normal,” Mr. Briscoe said, particularly with other controversial Tea Party-backed candidates, like Christine O’Donnell in Delaware, taking over the national stage.

Analysts here say the race appears to be Mr. Paul’s to lose. It seems he would have to make a blunder of gigantic proportions to alienate his supporters, and neither candidate appeared to make many in the debate on Sunday.

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Fox News Poll: Voters Use Midterm Elections to Send Message to White House - FOXNews

With the balance of power in Congress at stake, many voters plan to register dissatisfaction with a Democratic-controlled White House – making the midterm elections a referendum on President Obama.

A Fox News poll released Thursday finds that 41 percent will use their vote this year to express opposition to Obama's policies, compared to 34 percent who describe their vote as expressing support. The message is even clearer among the swing group of independent voters: by an 11 percentage-point margin, independents will cast their ballot to express opposition (41 percent) rather than support (30 percent) for Obama.

That's not surprising given the lack of support for some of the administration's policies. More voters favor rather than oppose repealing the new health care law (46-42 percent). That includes 24 percent of Democrats and 44 percent of independents who want the law repealed.

And by a wide 54-36 percent margin, voters favor legislation stopping the government from spending the hundreds of billions of dollars of unspent stimulus money.

While 57 percent say the Tea Party will not be a factor in their vote for Congress, fully 70 percent of voters support the "main issues the Tea Party has raised" -- calling for lower taxes, less government spending and less government regulation. That includes 49 percent of Democrats.

Those who will use their vote to make a statement on the Tea Party are more likely to cast their ballot as an expression of support for the movement rather than opposition (21-13 percent). It’s important to note the new poll finds just 13 percent consider themselves "part of" the Tea Party movement.

Almost all voters -- 86 percent -- say it feels like the country is still in a recession.

Nearly four in 10 (37 percent) say their family is worse off today compared to two years ago. Just over half (52 percent) say their situation hasn’t changed. Only 11 percent say they are better off today.

Meanwhile, Obama's job rating remains low. Currently 42 percent of voters approve, matching last week’s record low, and 49 percent disapprove. Two weeks ago the president’s rating hit a new low approval (42 percent) and record high disapproval (52 percent).

In addition, 46 percent think Obama is doing a good job "listening to the American people," down slightly from 49 percent in February. Forty-three percent think he’s doing a bad job listening. Yet the president fares better on this measure than those on Capitol Hill. Majorities think Democrats (59 percent) and Republicans in Congress (55 percent) are doing a bad job listening to the American people.

Overall, 72 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing, including 56 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of independents and 89 percent of Republicans. Likewise, 67 percent agree that the federal government has gotten “totally out of control” and American voters need to clean house.

The national telephone poll was conducted for Fox News by Opinion Dynamics Corp. among 900 registered voters from September 28 to September 29. For the total sample, the poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Click here to view the complete poll results 

Republicans Maintain Edge in 2010 Vote

More Republicans (78 percent) than Democrats (60 percent) are extremely or very interested in the upcoming election, and those who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement are the most interested group of voters this year (89 percent). In addition, a larger number of Republicans (83 percent) than Democrats (71 percent) are "certain" they will vote in the upcoming election.

That turns into an advantage for the Republicans. With Election Day less than five weeks away, by a 44-38 percent margin, more voters say they would back the Republican candidate in their district than the Democratic candidate if voting today. In mid-September, Republicans also had a 6-point edge on this generic ballot question (46-40 percent).

Among those who are extremely or very interested in the election, the Republican edge increases to 15 points (51-36 percent).

Not only are more Republicans (89 percent) than Democrats (82 percent) backing their party’s candidate, but also Democrats (20 percent) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (9 percent) to say they "dread" voting this year.

Ninety-three percent of those who consider themselves part of the Tea Party, as well as 82 percent of Republicans, 69 percent of Democrats and 67 percent of independents are “looking forward” to voting this year. 

Clinton Preferred Over Obama on Campaign Trail

While 35 percent of voters say they would be more likely to support a candidate if Obama campaigns for them, nearly half -- 48 percent -- say they would be less likely to do so.

Among independents, the president would do even more harm. By a 29-point spread, independents would be less likely (48 percent) to vote for a candidate Obama backs rather than more likely (19 percent).

It's a similar story for First Lady Michelle Obama -- voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate if she campaigns for them by 16 points.

For former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, the effect is about the same: by 19 points voters overall would be less likely to vote for a candidate she backs, and by 20-points independents would be less likely.

The most positive response was for former President Bill Clinton. Some 39 percent say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate Clinton backed, while 40 percent say less likely. Even so, among independents, Clinton would do more harm than good: 25 percent say they would be more likely and 40 percent less likely.

Congress Should Vote on Tax Cuts before Election

Most voters -- 76 percent -- favor continuing the Bush tax cuts for those making less than $250,000 a year. That drops to 45 percent support for extending the tax cuts for all Americans, including those making $250,000 or more.

Still, 71 percent think raising taxes right now would be a "mistake" because it would hurt the economy. That’s more than three times as many as think raising taxes is a “necessity” because of the size of the federal deficit (19 percent).

Either way, a 65 percent majority thinks Congress should take action on the Bush tax cuts before the upcoming midterm elections so lawmakers can be held accountable for their vote. That includes more than 6 in 10 Democrats, Republicans and independents.

The Republicans New Pledge to America

Nearly half of voters (47 percent) say they are familiar with the Republican Party’s new “Pledge to America,” which was announced September 23.

Of those at least somewhat familiar with the new Pledge, many more have a favorable (46 percent) than an unfavorable (35 percent) impression of it. For 9 percent it is too soon to say.

Click here to view the raw data 

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