Polls tighten as elections approach. Good news for Democrats? Maybe. - Christian Science Monitor

It’s just four weeks (and two days) until the midterm elections. But that’s a lifetime (or two) in politics, and it’s way too early for Speaker Nancy Pelosi or Minority Leader John Boehner to be staking claim to the fanciest digs in the US House of Representatives.

Skip to next paragraph

According to a race-by-race analysis by The New York Times, “Enough contests remain in flux that both parties head into the final four weeks of the campaign with the ability to change the dynamic before Election Day.”

“We have a lot of work to do,” Boehner told the newspaper.

Fund raising and targeted advertising – both for your guy and against the other guy – are important. Maybe more so – for Democrats especially – is rousing the party faithful from the typical midterm lethargy, then getting them to the polls on Election Day Nov. 2. That was the main point of the “One Nation Working Together” rally at the Lincoln Memorial Saturday organized by liberal groups.

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows the GOP edge in a generic poll asking which party should control Congress dropping from nine percentage points last month to just three points today. Gallup shows the generic poll essentially even, as does the POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll.

Meanwhile, there’s this:

“CNN has learned that Tom Donohue, the powerful president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce who has vowed to spend more than $75 million on key House and Senate races, has privately told colleagues in recent weeks he believes Democrats will just barely hold on to the House majority,” writes CNN’s Ed Henry.

Why the shift (or at least the perception of shift)?

“The NBC/WSJ pollsters attribute the tightening to increased enthusiasm for the upcoming midterms by African Americans (who saw a six-point gain in high interest) and Hispanics (who saw an 11-point gain),” reports MSNBC deputy political director Mark Murray.

Still, it is the youngsters that need to be aroused if Democrats are to hold onto power, writes Murray: “Young voters, who helped fuel Obama’s presidential victory in 2008, are now sitting on the sidelines. Just 35 percent of those ages 18-34 are enthusiastic about the election in November, versus 65 percent of seniors who say that.”

That’s exactly the point that President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have been making lately.

“We have to get folks off the sidelines,” President Obama said in a recent interview with Rolling Stone magazine. “People need to shake off this lethargy, people need to buck up.”

While the election is a month off on the calendar, in fact it’s already begun. People can already vote early in seven states. Two week from now, voters will be able to fill out their ballots in nearly half the country – 24 states.

Despite catching up in the “who should run Congress?” polls, there’s another reason for Democrats to be worried

“I hate to be a (Democratic) party pooper, but here’s the next piece of bad news,” writes Linda Hirshman at the Daily Beast. “Guess who’s not coming out to vote? White women. The enthusiasm among all women is down, but Gallup shows that white women are the least enthusiastic of all the major demographic groups.”

Time for Mr. Obama to turn on his legendary charm?

“Democrats still have a last-ditch chance to attract the crucial margin of white female voters,” writes Hirshman. “Since women poll as more concerned with children’s’ issues than men do, the recent activation of health care for children would be a good start.”

Well, maybe.

View the original article here

Fox News Poll: Voters Use Midterm Elections to Send Message to White House - FOXNews

With the balance of power in Congress at stake, many voters plan to register dissatisfaction with a Democratic-controlled White House – making the midterm elections a referendum on President Obama.

A Fox News poll released Thursday finds that 41 percent will use their vote this year to express opposition to Obama's policies, compared to 34 percent who describe their vote as expressing support. The message is even clearer among the swing group of independent voters: by an 11 percentage-point margin, independents will cast their ballot to express opposition (41 percent) rather than support (30 percent) for Obama.

That's not surprising given the lack of support for some of the administration's policies. More voters favor rather than oppose repealing the new health care law (46-42 percent). That includes 24 percent of Democrats and 44 percent of independents who want the law repealed.

And by a wide 54-36 percent margin, voters favor legislation stopping the government from spending the hundreds of billions of dollars of unspent stimulus money.

While 57 percent say the Tea Party will not be a factor in their vote for Congress, fully 70 percent of voters support the "main issues the Tea Party has raised" -- calling for lower taxes, less government spending and less government regulation. That includes 49 percent of Democrats.

Those who will use their vote to make a statement on the Tea Party are more likely to cast their ballot as an expression of support for the movement rather than opposition (21-13 percent). It’s important to note the new poll finds just 13 percent consider themselves "part of" the Tea Party movement.

Almost all voters -- 86 percent -- say it feels like the country is still in a recession.

Nearly four in 10 (37 percent) say their family is worse off today compared to two years ago. Just over half (52 percent) say their situation hasn’t changed. Only 11 percent say they are better off today.

Meanwhile, Obama's job rating remains low. Currently 42 percent of voters approve, matching last week’s record low, and 49 percent disapprove. Two weeks ago the president’s rating hit a new low approval (42 percent) and record high disapproval (52 percent).

In addition, 46 percent think Obama is doing a good job "listening to the American people," down slightly from 49 percent in February. Forty-three percent think he’s doing a bad job listening. Yet the president fares better on this measure than those on Capitol Hill. Majorities think Democrats (59 percent) and Republicans in Congress (55 percent) are doing a bad job listening to the American people.

Overall, 72 percent disapprove of the job Congress is doing, including 56 percent of Democrats, 73 percent of independents and 89 percent of Republicans. Likewise, 67 percent agree that the federal government has gotten “totally out of control” and American voters need to clean house.

The national telephone poll was conducted for Fox News by Opinion Dynamics Corp. among 900 registered voters from September 28 to September 29. For the total sample, the poll has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

Click here to view the complete poll results 

Republicans Maintain Edge in 2010 Vote

More Republicans (78 percent) than Democrats (60 percent) are extremely or very interested in the upcoming election, and those who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement are the most interested group of voters this year (89 percent). In addition, a larger number of Republicans (83 percent) than Democrats (71 percent) are "certain" they will vote in the upcoming election.

That turns into an advantage for the Republicans. With Election Day less than five weeks away, by a 44-38 percent margin, more voters say they would back the Republican candidate in their district than the Democratic candidate if voting today. In mid-September, Republicans also had a 6-point edge on this generic ballot question (46-40 percent).

Among those who are extremely or very interested in the election, the Republican edge increases to 15 points (51-36 percent).

Not only are more Republicans (89 percent) than Democrats (82 percent) backing their party’s candidate, but also Democrats (20 percent) are more than twice as likely as Republicans (9 percent) to say they "dread" voting this year.

Ninety-three percent of those who consider themselves part of the Tea Party, as well as 82 percent of Republicans, 69 percent of Democrats and 67 percent of independents are “looking forward” to voting this year. 

Clinton Preferred Over Obama on Campaign Trail

While 35 percent of voters say they would be more likely to support a candidate if Obama campaigns for them, nearly half -- 48 percent -- say they would be less likely to do so.

Among independents, the president would do even more harm. By a 29-point spread, independents would be less likely (48 percent) to vote for a candidate Obama backs rather than more likely (19 percent).

It's a similar story for First Lady Michelle Obama -- voters would be less likely to vote for a candidate if she campaigns for them by 16 points.

For former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, the effect is about the same: by 19 points voters overall would be less likely to vote for a candidate she backs, and by 20-points independents would be less likely.

The most positive response was for former President Bill Clinton. Some 39 percent say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate Clinton backed, while 40 percent say less likely. Even so, among independents, Clinton would do more harm than good: 25 percent say they would be more likely and 40 percent less likely.

Congress Should Vote on Tax Cuts before Election

Most voters -- 76 percent -- favor continuing the Bush tax cuts for those making less than $250,000 a year. That drops to 45 percent support for extending the tax cuts for all Americans, including those making $250,000 or more.

Still, 71 percent think raising taxes right now would be a "mistake" because it would hurt the economy. That’s more than three times as many as think raising taxes is a “necessity” because of the size of the federal deficit (19 percent).

Either way, a 65 percent majority thinks Congress should take action on the Bush tax cuts before the upcoming midterm elections so lawmakers can be held accountable for their vote. That includes more than 6 in 10 Democrats, Republicans and independents.

The Republicans New Pledge to America

Nearly half of voters (47 percent) say they are familiar with the Republican Party’s new “Pledge to America,” which was announced September 23.

Of those at least somewhat familiar with the new Pledge, many more have a favorable (46 percent) than an unfavorable (35 percent) impression of it. For 9 percent it is too soon to say.

Click here to view the raw data 

View the original article here