Makeup of New Congress Increases Odds of Gridlock - Wall Street Journal

Come January, the House will be composed of an energized conservative Republican majority and a Democratic minority that has become more liberal. At the same time, a more closely divided Senate could make it harder to assemble the 60 votes needed to pass most bills.

Getty Images Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid speaks in Las Vegas on Tuesday, after defeating Republican Sharron Angle in a hotly contested race.

That could be a recipe for legislative gridlock.

In the past year, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D., Nev.) has struggled to pass legislation even with a 59-seat majority, thwarted by Republican filibusters. The election's outcome remained uncertain in Alaska and Washington state, but it's clear Democrats will emerge with a far smaller majority of 52 or 53 seats out of 100.

In such a narrowly divided Senate, a bipartisan coalition will be required to tackle any difficult issue. Yet some Democrats leaving the Senate, like Arkansas's Blanche Lincoln and Indiana's Evan Bayh, are among the most open to working with Republicans.

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Mr. Reid said the election results left the parties no choice but to work together—and that he wanted to do so. But he also said Republicans have been uniformly obstructionist over the past two years.

"The ball is in their court," Mr. Reid. "We made the message very clear that we want to work with the Republicans. If they're unwilling to work with us, there's not a thing we can do about it."

GOP leaders don't see it that way, saying voters rewarded them for blocking Democratic initiatives.

"What the American people were saying yesterday is they appreciate us saying no to things the American people indicated they were not in favor of," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.).

Now, he said, it's up to the Democrats to move the Republicans' way.

That might be easier said than done, with the new Senate still including a strong faction of impassioned liberals, like Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., Vt.), as well as a group of staunch conservatives like Sen.-elect Rand Paul (R., Ky.).

With every senator having the ability to bring the Senate to a halt under its arcane rules, gridlock in the chamber is a serious risk.

The House is likely to be even more polarized than the Senate. The resurgent Republican majority appears responsive to the populist spirit of the tea party. The Democratic minority, having suffered many losses among its conservative members, will be more broadly liberal.

Twenty-two out of the 53 members of the conservative Blue Dog Democrats lost on Tuesday night, and another five are retiring, significantly weakening a group that has sought to bridge the gap between the two parties.

Many of the centrists who lost were first- or second-term members from conservative districts, and Democrats will have a far smaller foothold in the South and Midwest.

House Minority Leader John Boehner (R., Ohio), who is expected to become speaker in January, told reporters he hoped to work with President Barack Obama, but he didn't mention House Democrats.

Mr. Boehner did speak of "incorporating members of the tea party," which may not bode well for working with the opposition Democrats.

Rep. Lynn Woolsey (D., Calif.), who co-chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, noted that her liberal group lost only four of its 82 members, in contrast to the Blue Dogs.

"We're not going to give up progressive values just to look like we're cooperating with the tea party," Ms. Woolsey said in an interview. "We cannot become timid."

Beyond the Blue Dogs, Democratic casualties in the House included powerful committee chairmen such as John Spratt of the Budget Committee, Ike Skelton of the Armed Services Committee and Jim Oberstar of the Infrastructure and Transportation Committee. All of them were noted for working with Republicans.

Tuesday's results did suggest a renaissance of Northeastern Republicans in Congress, a species that had been all but extinct. The House will have at least five new Republicans from Pennsylvania, five from New York and two from New Hampshire.

Some may be open to making common cause with Democrats on certain issues. "Centrists Republicans will play a larger and vastly more important role in this new Congress," said former Rep. Tom Davis (R., Va.), who heads the centrist Republican Main Street Partnership.

But given the passion of the small-government activists who powered the Republican sweep, there was little talk of compromise Wednesday in the House. Just hours after polls closed, Republicans faced a messy leadership battle that underlined the dynamic within the party.

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R., Texas) announced a run for chairman of the House Republican Conference, the fourth-ranking position in the House GOP. He was quickly endorsed by Rep. Eric Cantor (R., Va.), a top Republican leader.

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R., Minn.), a high-profile leader of the tea-party movement, announced she was running as well. Neither Mr. Hensarling nor Ms. Bachmann is known for compromising with Democrats, and Ms. Bachmann in particular is given to comments that outrage liberals.

House Democrats faced their own leadership questions as they awaited word from Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D., Calif.) about her next step.

Some Democrats expected she would resign her leadership post rather than become minority leader, and perhaps leave Congress entirely. That is what Republicans Newt Gingrich and Dennis Hastert did after they lost the speakership.

Pelosi spokesman Brendan Daly said she had not yet made her plans known. If Ms. Pelosi doesn't remain, Rep. Steny Hoyer (D., Md.) would likely become House Democratic leader.

Some Democrats have wondered whether Mr. Hoyer, a centrist who enjoys strong support from the Blue Dogs, would face a challenge in a more liberal-dominated caucus, but so far none has surfaced.

—Alexandra Berzon
and Louise Radnofsky contributed to this article.

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