By Jessica Van SackWednesday, October 13, 2010 - Updated 1 hour ago
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Jessica Van Sack is an award-winning journalist and the Herald's chief enterprise reporter. A graduate of Boston University, she interned in broadcast news in Europe and covered South Shore towns before joining the Herald. She works out of the State House where you can send tips to jvansack@bostonherald.com.
The treacherous defection of Tim Cahill’s running mate to Charlie Baker’s camp has backfired on the GOP candidate and helped propel Gov. Deval Patrick to a seven-point lead in the race for governor, a new Suffolk University/7News poll shows.
“Whether they like Deval Patrick or not, people are still saying he’s run the best campaign and he has the best temperament to be governor,’’ said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center. “He’s on the goal line. But he hasn’t gotten the touchdown yet.’’
The survey of 500 registered voters, conducted Sunday to Tuesday, shows Patrick leading with 46 percent, followed by the GOP’s Baker with 39 percent, Cahill with 10 percent and Green-Rainbow candidate Jill Stein with 1 percent. The poll has a 4.4 percent plus-minus margin of error.
With an astonishing 80 percent of likely voters aware of Cahill’s lawsuit accusing former aides of sabotaging his campaign, one in four said the debacle made them more likely to vote for Democrat Patrick.
Cahill’s former aides and ex-running mate Paul Loscocco — who left the campaign to endorse Baker — ended up doing more harm than good. The move hurt not just Cahill, the state treasurer and independent challenger, but Baker as well, with 17 percent of voters saying the debacle made them less likely to support Baker. Nineteen percent said it turned them off to Cahill.
Surprisingly, 45 percent of those polled said Cahill should remain in the race.
The episode did little to boost confidence in Baker’s leadership, with twice as many voters saying Patrick has the best temperament to be governor — and 38 percent saying he has run the best campaign.
More evidence that Cahill’s defectors missed their mark: Just 10 percent of voters reported that the exodus had the intended effect of hindering their support of Patrick.
Both Cahill and Baker are polling higher negatives than positives. Not so for Patrick, who has a 46 percent favorability rating, compared to 43 percent who view him unfavorably.
As the election looms a mere 19 days away, previously undecided voters and former Cahill supporters are breaking evenly for Patrick and Baker.
Cahill is also an obstacle for Baker in his biggest stronghold: Southeastern Massachusetts, Paleologos said. Suffolk County also remains a Patrick stronghold.
Despite President Obama’s lagging approval ratings nationwide, his stumping for Patrick Saturday may prove to be a Bay State boost, with 51 percent registering a favorable opinion of the commander in chief.
“Tim Cahill is toast, and Charlie Baker is getting burned by his manner and message,” said 7News political editor Andy Hiller, who added Patrick is like the “Mona Lisa” with his “serene smile” as the other two go for the jugular.
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