Polls tighten as elections approach. Good news for Democrats? Maybe. - Christian Science Monitor

It’s just four weeks (and two days) until the midterm elections. But that’s a lifetime (or two) in politics, and it’s way too early for Speaker Nancy Pelosi or Minority Leader John Boehner to be staking claim to the fanciest digs in the US House of Representatives.

Skip to next paragraph

According to a race-by-race analysis by The New York Times, “Enough contests remain in flux that both parties head into the final four weeks of the campaign with the ability to change the dynamic before Election Day.”

“We have a lot of work to do,” Boehner told the newspaper.

Fund raising and targeted advertising – both for your guy and against the other guy – are important. Maybe more so – for Democrats especially – is rousing the party faithful from the typical midterm lethargy, then getting them to the polls on Election Day Nov. 2. That was the main point of the “One Nation Working Together” rally at the Lincoln Memorial Saturday organized by liberal groups.

The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows the GOP edge in a generic poll asking which party should control Congress dropping from nine percentage points last month to just three points today. Gallup shows the generic poll essentially even, as does the POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll.

Meanwhile, there’s this:

“CNN has learned that Tom Donohue, the powerful president of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce who has vowed to spend more than $75 million on key House and Senate races, has privately told colleagues in recent weeks he believes Democrats will just barely hold on to the House majority,” writes CNN’s Ed Henry.

Why the shift (or at least the perception of shift)?

“The NBC/WSJ pollsters attribute the tightening to increased enthusiasm for the upcoming midterms by African Americans (who saw a six-point gain in high interest) and Hispanics (who saw an 11-point gain),” reports MSNBC deputy political director Mark Murray.

Still, it is the youngsters that need to be aroused if Democrats are to hold onto power, writes Murray: “Young voters, who helped fuel Obama’s presidential victory in 2008, are now sitting on the sidelines. Just 35 percent of those ages 18-34 are enthusiastic about the election in November, versus 65 percent of seniors who say that.”

That’s exactly the point that President Obama and Vice President Joe Biden have been making lately.

“We have to get folks off the sidelines,” President Obama said in a recent interview with Rolling Stone magazine. “People need to shake off this lethargy, people need to buck up.”

While the election is a month off on the calendar, in fact it’s already begun. People can already vote early in seven states. Two week from now, voters will be able to fill out their ballots in nearly half the country – 24 states.

Despite catching up in the “who should run Congress?” polls, there’s another reason for Democrats to be worried

“I hate to be a (Democratic) party pooper, but here’s the next piece of bad news,” writes Linda Hirshman at the Daily Beast. “Guess who’s not coming out to vote? White women. The enthusiasm among all women is down, but Gallup shows that white women are the least enthusiastic of all the major demographic groups.”

Time for Mr. Obama to turn on his legendary charm?

“Democrats still have a last-ditch chance to attract the crucial margin of white female voters,” writes Hirshman. “Since women poll as more concerned with children’s’ issues than men do, the recent activation of health care for children would be a good start.”

Well, maybe.

View the original article here

PREVIEW-U.S. court term has free-speech, immigration cases - Reuters

* First term for Justice Elena Kagan, an Obama appointee

* Nine-member court remains closely divided

* Conservative majority with four liberals

By James Vicini

WASHINGTON, Oct 3 (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court will consider important cases on anti-gay protests at military funerals, violent video games and immigration law during its new term that begins on Monday.

The nine-member high court will open its 2010-11 term with a new member on the bench, Justice Elena Kagan, who was appointed by President Barack Obama.

Kagan succeeded Justice John Paul Stevens, who retired in June. She probably will not change the court's balance of power, which is widely seen as remaining closely divided with a five-member conservative majority and four liberals.

The conservative Republican appointees are Chief Justice John Roberts and Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony Kennedy, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito.

Besides Kagan, the Democratic appointees on the left are Justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg, Stephen Breyer and Sonia Sotomayor, the court's first Hispanic who was appointed by Obama last year.

"While the conservative credentials of the Roberts court have been well-established by now, this term may tell us something more about its particular brand of conservatism," said Steven Shapiro of the American Civil Liberties Union.

He said the term could show whether the current court is more concerned about corporate rights and less concerned about states' rights than the court under the previous chief justice, the late William Rehnquist.

One of the term's most closely watched cases will be argued on Wednesday when the justices consider whether free-speech rights protect anti-gay protests by members of a small Kansas church at funerals for U.S. military members killed in Iraq.

Fordham University law professor Benjamin Zipursky said a U.S. appeals court overextended free-speech rights and interfered with a father's right to hold a peaceful, dignified funeral for his son who died in Iraq.

MISTAKE OF JUDGMENT

"Let's hope the Supreme Court corrects this serious mistake of judgment and misapplication of law," he said.

Another major free-speech case will be argued in November, when the justices consider a California law banning the sale and rental of violent video games to minors.

*We welcome comments that advance the story directly or with relevant tangential information. We try to block comments that use offensive language or appear to be spam and review comments frequently to ensure they meet our standards. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters.

View the original article here

US issues travel alert for Europe amid threat of Al Qaeda attack - Los Angeles Times

Snipers of the German police stand guard on a roof during the celebration for the 20th anniversary of the German reunification in front of the town hall in Bremen. Germany's interior ministry said in a statement that the travel alert for Americans comes in light of recent threats and that Berlin was informed by the U.S. of the decision to issue the alert. (Ingo Wagner, AFP/Getty Images / October 3, 2010)

The State Department issued a travel alert Sunday for American citizens in Europe in light of increased U.S. and European intelligence that a large-scale Al Qaeda attack may be imminent.

Intelligence officials in the U.S. and Europe have said an increase in activity in recent weeks suggests that a small cell of potential terrorists hiding in North Waziristan, a Pakistani tribal region, are preparing an attack that could be as spectacular as the 2008 raids in Mumbai, India, that killed 166 people.

Plotters could be planning to use "a variety of means and target both official and private interests," the State Department said, adding that Americans abroad should be careful riding on railways, subways and other transportation systems, and visiting hotels, restaurants and tourist spots.

"U.S. citizens should take every precaution," the travel alert said.

It is thought that Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden is behind the current plot, and if successful, it could become the largest terrorist action since the Sept. 11 attacks nine years ago.

Hundreds of thousands of Americans are traveling in Europe at any given time — as tourists, college students and business professionals. But the State Department did not upgrade its alert to a warning, which could lead to widespread cancellations of airline and hotel bookings.

Nevertheless, many now in Europe found themselves quickly aware of the situation. With the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves in London preparing for a preseason game, the National Basketball Assn. promised to take "appropriate" measures to ensure their safety.

"The NBA is staying in contact with the U.S. Embassy, the CIA and Scotland Yard," said Lakers spokesman John Black. "They are keeping us informed of the situation."

European governments began warning of a possible attack last week.

In Britain, the threat of terrorism has been listed as "severe," meaning an attack is highly likely. Britain's Foreign Office also warned its citizens to be careful traveling in France.

French Defense Minister Hervé Morin told Le Parisien newspaper that "the terrorist threat exists and could hit us at any moment." But Morin said law-enforcement officials were continuing to pursue would-be terrorists.

"Networks organizing themselves to prepare attacks are constantly being dismantled around the world," he said. "It is good for the French to know this."

The U.S. military in recent weeks has stepped up drone missile attacks on suspected hideouts in regions of Pakistan, and the United States is passing its intelligence to its European counterparts.

According to intelligence sources, the current threat apparently arose after the arrest and interrogation of a German man of Pakistani origin who was being held at the U.S. air base in Bagram, Afghanistan. He reportedly has provided information about the activities of half a dozen other men from Germany and England who were linked through Al Qaeda and allegedly talking to other operatives in several European cities about upcoming strikes.

richard.serrano@latimes.com

View the original article here