Former White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel is off to an early lead in the race for Chicago mayor, but there is plenty of room for other contenders in the crowded field as the fluid contest takes shape, a new Tribune/WGN poll found.
Emanuel had the support of 32 percent of voters, just ahead of 30 percent who were undecided, making him the only candidate in double-digits with more than two months before the Feb. 22 city election. He was well short of the outright majority needed to avoid an April runoff between the top two finishers.
First though, Emanuel has to survive a ballot challenge by those who say he doesn't qualify under rules requiring mayoral candidates to be Chicago residents for a year before the election. While several more of the 15 current candidates could be knocked off or drop out as the race gets serious, the poll showed a splintered field largely defined by name recognition.
Former Chicago Public Schools chief Gery Chico and U.S. Rep. Danny Davis each had 9 percent, with state Sen. James Meeks at 7 percent and former U.S. Sen. Carol Moseley Braun at 6 percent. City Clerk Miguel del Valle had 3 percent.
Former U.S. Sen. Roland Burris, whose intention to stay in the race is uncertain, had just 2 percent backing. None of the other candidates reached 1 percent in the poll of 721 registered, likely voters conducted Dec. 10-13, which has an error margin of 3.6 percentage points.
The poll came amid the holiday season, when voters typically are more focused on family and friends than politics, and before any of the major candidate forums have taken place. Nevertheless, the race has already become high-profile, with Emanuel running television commercials and many of the big-name candidates holding public events on a near-daily basis.
It's the first time in more than 60 years that a sitting Chicago mayor won't be on the ballot, after Mayor Richard Daley in September announced he would not run for re-election as he neared 22 years in office.
Although Daley's approval rating was sinking, he was still considered a formidable political foe, after years of building support that spanned the city's racial, ethnic and economic divisions. More than any other candidate so far, Emanuel also is bridging those gaps, the poll indicated.
The former North Side congressman is out front on the strength of his support from lakefront wards, white voters and the wealthy, according to the survey. He's also holding his own among Latino and African-American voters.
He has the support of more Hispanics than any other candidate, is backed by more blacks than anyone except Davis and enjoys the backing of 46 percent of whites. More than half of voters who live in households with more than $100,000 in annual income said they would vote for him.
Davis, an African-American political veteran who also served on the City Council and the Cook County Board, was backed by 21 percent of black voters, but just 2 percent of Hispanics and 1 percent of whites.
Among blacks, 30 percent are undecided, 19 percent back Emanuel, 13 percent favor Meeks and 10 percent are for Braun. Burris, once a popular African-American politician, had just 3 percent support among blacks.
Chico — of Latino, Greek and Lithuanian heritage — had 15 percent support among whites, 12 percent among Hispanics and just 2 percent among blacks.
Chico and del Valle combined trail Emanuel in the Latino community. Among likely Hispanic voters, 36 percent are undecided, 27 percent favor Emanuel, 14 percent del Valle and 12 percent Chico.
Most voters are not disappointed by Daley's decision not to run again. Only 30 percent wanted to see him run for a record seventh term, while 59 percent said they would not like to see him run again. The rest weren't sure.
Last July, a Tribune poll found that 53 percent of voters didn't want to see Daley elected to another term, and only 31 percent wanted to see him re-elected. And only 37 percent approved of the job he was doing.
Daley has been hurt politically by corruption scandals under his watch, the perception that not enough is being done to combat crime, and consternation over the effects of his decision to lease out the city's parking meter system.
hdardick@tribune.com
