By nearly every indication, Republicans stand to make big gains in the midterms and could sweep dozens of Democrats out of the House. With less than three weeks to go, there are only a limited set of variables and last-minute imponderables that could substantially alter the course of the election and give Democrats a better chance of holding off possible Republican control of the House and near parity or better in the Senate.
Democrats, while throwing in the towel in a few places, note that some of their vulnerable candidates are running close or ahead in polls, giving them hope that their firewall will hold. Yet if they are to retain the House and Senate, Democrats need help on multiple fronts and from Republicans themselves, who must still avoid serious mistakes, misjudgments and a sense of complacency if they intend to occupy the speaker’s office.
THE VETTING CHALLENGE Among the lingering questions remaining for Republicans is whether their many untested and unvetted challengers can navigate the next few weeks without an embarrassing disclosure, public gaffe or brutal debate slip-up as voters focus more closely on the battle for Congress.
New revelations of a candidate who occasionally dressed up as a Nazi officer and the high-profile filing of a sexual harassment lawsuit against another already have Republicans pessimistic about their chances for two Democratic seats in Ohio they had hoped to swipe from Democrats.
Similar episodes could take more seats off the table and also hurt Republican hopefuls elsewhere by reinforcing an overarching Democratic theme that Republicans are unqualified and not ready to govern. Many Republicans remember how the late fall House page scandal dashed their chances of holding the House in 2006.
THROW THEM ALL OUT Another unpleasant thought nagging at Republicans is that more of their own incumbents than believed could be at risk from voters eager to toss out established politicians of both parties, not just majority Democrats. In the House takeover years of 1994 by Republicans and 2006 by Democrats, no incumbent of either triumphant party lost.
Democrats say they believe they can pick off four or five Republican seats and perhaps more, increasing the overall number of seats Republicans would need to claim a majority and conceivably making the difference between majority and minority.
Republicans say they expect surprises on Nov. 2, but not enough to change the overall outcome since they predict some Democrats will be caught unaware as well.
“I fully expect that we will wake up after Election Day and have lost an incumbent or two or a seat that we didn’t expect and so will they,” said Carl Forti, a former top aide at the National Republican Congressional Committee who is serving as political director at the advocacy group American Crossroads.
THE OTHER CHOICE The rise of the Tea Party and other activist groups, while generally a boon to Republicans this year, is also threatening to limit the party’s gains as Election Day looms. Third-party candidates who refused to make way for Republican hopefuls could siphon voters away from them and throw some close races to Democrats in places like Virginia, Florida and Colorado.
FIRING UP THE BASE As for Democrats, they still have some ways to influence the outcome. President Obama is set to begin a coast-to-coast campaign swing on Friday in hopes of rallying the voters who flocked to Democrats in 2008 and closing the enthusiasm gap that has favored Republicans this year.
Democrats also have a get-out-the-vote effort that even Republicans acknowledge is superior, though they say its benefits will be limited in a year when Republican voters are already so highly motivated that they need no prodding to vote.
David Plouffe, a political adviser to the Democratic National Committee who ran Mr. Obama’s campaign two years ago, acknowledged the difficult headwinds facing the party and its candidates for the House, Senate and governor. But he said a well-organized turnout operation and a closer inspection of Republican candidates could cause many races to tighten.
No comments:
Post a Comment