Because so many of you have asked, here is the total of what I know about the odds of a Verizon iPhone. That perpetual rumor subject is once again in the news, courtesy of a Wall Street Journal story that declares upfront: "Apple Inc. is making a version of its iPhone that Verizon Wireless will sell early next year, according to people familiar with the matter."
* The WSJ's piece is more specific than others -- after an overnight revision that changed it from referring to an iPhone running on Verizon's CDMA wireless technology to naming Verizon upfront. And the WSJ's reporters are no slouches.
* I have no direct evidence proving or disproving the WSJ's story. (If you do, you know how to reach me.)
* I don't put much value in anything Verizon Wireless might say today. If the company is really getting the thing, of course it will say nothing or offer deliberately vague, possibly misleading answers. Apple, meanwhile, will maintain its customary, sphinx-like silence.
* I suspect that Apple has had test CDMA versions of the iPhone for years, just as it had test versions of Mac OS X running on Intel processors for years before it announced it would switch from PowerPC chips to Intel's.
* Strictly as a business proposition, it's unwise for Apple to keep the iPhone chained to one carrier in the U.S. market when many potential customers don't want to use that carrier's services. That's not how it offers the iPhone elsewhere, as per the long-standing business maxim that "if somebody wants to give you their money for a product, you should let them." But there could be complicating factors: Maybe somebody at AT&T has naked pictures of Steve Jobs.
* Don't forget that every single story predicting the arrival of a Verizon iPhone on a date preceding today has been wrong. That is a nearly unmatched record of forecasting futility.
* I would also find it inconceivable for Apple to let Verizon give an iPhone the usual Verizon treatment -- prominent Verizon branding, a suite of non-removable Verizon apps, maybe even a separate app store -- much less the outright disfigurement of somebody else's software I saw in its new Samsung Fascinate.
* If you want to hold on to an antique phone in the hope that Verizon will pull an iPhone out of its hat sometime early next year, you might as well go ahead now. But I reserve the right to point and laugh at you if your optimism proves unwarranted. I might not even wait to mock you: Sitting around and hoping for a Verizon iPhone to descend from the skies, year after year, starts to resemble cargo-cult behavior. Seriously, aren't you tired of carrying around your Windows Mobile 6 device or your Palm Treo already?
* I believe I speak for every tech reporter in America when I write this: Very few things would make me happier than not to have to answer "when is the iPhone coming to Verizon" questions anymore. Seriously -- I hate this story. So, please, companies involved: Make it go away, one way or another.
No comments:
Post a Comment