Report: iPad will grow 250% in 2011 at the expense of PCs - Apple Insider

Report: iPad will grow 250% in 2011 at the expense of PCs

By Daniel Eran Dilger

Published: 03:00 PM EST

A new report claims tablet sales will more than triple next year, but says Apple will hold on to its dominant position with the iPad, jumping from 14 million units in 2010 to 36 million next year.

The report, cited by John Paczkowski of the Wall Street Journal Digital Daily blog, was prepared by Caris & Co. analyst Robert Cihra.

"We model Apple?s iPad continuing to dominate [?] in 2011,? Cihra wrote. "iPad not only launched with phenomenal early uptake but effectively sent all wannabes back to the drawing board, delaying most competitive tablet launches well into CY11.

"Yet we now already look forward to the first iPad 2 refresh in March (i.e., establishing annual cadence for iPads in March, iPhone each June and iPods in Sept). An enormous multi-year opportunity, we continue to view iPads less about the ?product? but rather igniting an explosion toward ?thin-client? Access computing.?

Android licensees, including Acer, Motorola and possibly HTC, are expected to demo new tablets at CES, but those devices won't be ready until Google finishes Android OS 3.0 Honeycomb, which isn't expected for release until March 2011. RIM is still struggling to put its PlayBook technologies together, while HP prepares its first webOS tablet, expected to be named PalmPad. Microsoft is also believed to be attempting a second shot at launching tablets running Windows 7 at CES.

A large number of new competing mobile platforms will make it easier for Apple's iPad to stand up as an established product, with thousands of apps and mature enterprise support, in a sea of incompatible tablet designs attempting to deliver a wide range of screen sizes and other feature packages.

Tablets to expand at the expense of conventional PCs

Cihra estimates global tablet sales at 54 million in 2011, with Apple taking 67 percent market share with its iPad. That growth, he said, would come at the expense of PCs.

"We see cannibalization from ?thin-client? iPads/tablets, particularly vs. netbooks and in multi-PC homes, already growing to 1/7th the size of the overall PC market in 2011 and shaving 5 percentage points off what PC growth might otherwise have been,? Cihra wrote. PC growth, excluding tablets, is expected to drop from 14 percent this year to just 9 percent in 2011.

However, if tablets are defined as a new PC form factor they would turn the situation around, as Cihra presented graphically in the report (below).

Defining the iPad as a PC, which Microsoft's chief executive Steve Ballmer did earlier this year, also more than doubles Apple's market share and establishes the company as the largest mobile PC maker in the US and the third largest worldwide, behind only HP and Acer, and just ahead of Dell.

While the iPad is devastating growth among low end notebooks and netbooks, they haven't had a discernible impact upon Apple's MacBook sales, which have been bolstered by the recent release of the MacBook Air. Apple doesn't sell any PCs on the extreme low end, isolating it from the cannibalization other PC makers are experiencing in the wake of the iPad's release. Instead, the iPad has bolstered Apple's earnings while appearing to only offer a halo effect that supports Mac sales and growth.

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Roberts Urges Obama on Judicial Nominees - New York Times

The plea, in the chief justice’s annual year-end report on the federal judiciary, was an echo of one from his predecessor, Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, who made front-page news on New Year’s Day in 1998 by criticizing the Senate for failing to move more quickly on President Bill Clinton’s judicial nominees.

Both chief justices were appointed by Republican presidents, and both said that their interest was not in particular appointees but in a judiciary functioning at something like full strength.

“We do not comment on the merits of individual nominees,” Chief Justice Roberts wrote on Friday. “That is as it should be. The judiciary must respect the constitutional prerogatives of the president and Congress in the same way that the judiciary expects respect for its constitutional role.”

But he identified what he called a systemic problem.

“Each political party has found it easy to turn on a dime from decrying to defending the blocking of judicial nominations, depending on their changing political fortunes,” he said.

The upshot, he said, was “acute difficulties for some judicial districts.”

The chief justice noted that the Senate recently filled a number of vacancies. Including 19 recently confirmed judges, the Senate has confirmed 62 of Mr. Obama’s nominees. There are 96 federal court vacancies, according to the Administrative Office of the United States Courts.

“There remains,” the chief justice wrote, “an urgent need for the political branches to find a long-term solution to this recurring problem.”

The chief justice’s report, which was 12 pages long and included four pages of statistics, was largely focused on the judicial branch’s efforts to save money in difficult economic times. It did not explicitly press for an increase in judicial pay, a topic that has been a major theme in earlier reports.

The report opened with a sketch of the financial and cultural climate in 1935, during the Great Depression. “Many Americans sought respite from the nation’s economic troubles at their local movie theaters, which debuted now-classic films, such as ‘Mutiny on the Bounty,’ ‘Top Hat’ and ‘Night at the Opera,’ ” Chief Justice Roberts wrote.

“Moviegoers of that era enjoyed a prelude of short features as they settled into their seats,” he continued. “As the lights dimmed, the screen beamed previews of coming attractions, Merrie Melody cartoons, and the Movietone newsreels of current events.”

Those current events included, though the chief justice did not say so, a clash between President Franklin Delano Roosevelt and the Supreme Court over New Deal legislation that may foreshadow a similar conflict when lawsuits over the recent health care legislation reach the court.

Chief Justice Roberts did describe newsreels showing the new Supreme Court building, which opened that year. “Seventy-five years later, the Supreme Court’s majestic building stands out as a familiar and iconic monument to the rule of law,” he wrote.

But he said nothing about the court’s decision this year to close its front doors to people seeking to enter, for reasons of security.

That decision, in May, was criticized by Justices Stephen G. Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who said they hoped the day would come when it would be possible “to restore the Supreme Court’s main entrance as a symbol of dignified openness and meaningful access to equal justice under law.”

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Google takes heat over Android tablet OS - Computerworld

IDG News Service - Android device makers around the world are anticipating great things from the next version of Google's mobile software, and they need the boost. Apple has a strong head start with sales of its popular iPad, while the App Store and iTunes give it apps and content, to boot.

But after a year of prodding Google, device makers think they've finally won with the upcoming "Honeycomb" upgrade to Android, which is expected by the end of the first quarter and is supposed to be the first version of the software designed for tablets instead of smartphones.

Earlier this year, for example, Samsung Electronics, had to fight to have the Android Market app, which connects users to the software's online treasure trove of over 150,000 apps, on its Galaxy Tab, according to one executive who asked not to be named due to his company's close relationship with Google.

At the time that Samsung was developing the Galaxy Tab to use Android, Google was struggling to decide if it wanted to put its upcoming Chrome OS in tablets and make Android exclusive to smartphones. The Chrome OS better fits Google's Cloud strategy, the executive said.

A Google spokesperson declined to comment on the issue.

Google's decision to make a tablet-friendly version of Android became a must after Apple launched its groundbreaking iPad, analysts say.

"Earlier in the year, Google probably thought that Chrome OS might be the right platform for tablets. However, the importance of the compatibility of apps across smartphones and tablets, evident from the iPad experience, has created the need for Google to ensure that the commercial success of apps can be preserved in the tablet proposition," said Martin Bradley, an analyst at Strategy Analytics.

Apple sold nearly 8 million iPads through the end of September, making it one of the hottest products of the year. (That tally is from official Apple figures from its quarterly earnings conference call and doesn't include holiday sales.)

By being first, Apple has set the tone for the entire market. Tablet makers need to put out the same OS for their smartphones and tablets so apps can be shared on either device. Even more important, apps specifically designed for tablets need to be made available, to take advantage of the larger screens, more powerful processors and expanded memory on board.

Of the 300,000 or so apps available to Apple iPhone and iPod Touch users, 40,000 are specifically designed for the iPad, and they are marketed that way on Apple's App Store.

By contrast, Google's Android Market does not offer any tablet-only apps to users, only smartphone apps. However, upstart Appslib is filling the void with its own tablet-only app store for Android lovers. Appslib is not affiliated with Google.

Reprinted with permission from IDG.net. Story copyright 2010 International Data Group. All rights reserved.

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